Democrats’ path to the U.S. Senate may run through Michigan — and through one of the most politically charged races of the midterm cycle.
According to reporting by Jared Strong of The Center Square, Democrats are trying to hold an open Michigan seat with Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, an epidemiologist and former Detroit and Wayne County health director who became the first Muslim nominated by a major party for the Senate seat.
His Republican opponent is former seven-term Congressman Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost a Senate bid two years ago. Rogers has also had a complicated relationship with President Donald Trump, once blaming him for provoking the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol attack before later aligning himself more closely with Trump during his Senate run.
A Crucial Seat With Little Margin for Error
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said Democrats’ route to Senate control “clearly goes through Michigan.” University of Michigan political scientist Jonathan Hanson told The Center Square that losing the seat would make the Democratic path to a majority “really, really difficult.”
El-Sayed won the Democratic primary against Congresswoman Haley Stevens, a moderate, despite being heavily outspent by Stevens’ campaign and outside supporters. His victory, however, was narrow: just 1 percentage point.
Hanson said some Democratic voters may have ultimately backed Stevens because polls suggested she had a better chance against Rogers in November. Still, he said El-Sayed benefited from Democratic voters who wanted a sharper posture toward Trump.
“Voters were hungry for a more confrontational message against the Trump administration,” Hanson told The Center Square.
Republicans Move Quickly to Define El-Sayed
After El-Sayed’s primary win, the National Republican Senatorial Committee aired ads using his full name — Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed — and calling him a “radical,” according to The Center Square.
The race is also unfolding against broader public skepticism toward Muslims in the United States. The Center Square cited a Pew Research Center survey from this year finding that about 42% of U.S. adults believe American Muslims are having a negative impact on the country, while about half say Islam encourages violence more than other religions.
Attack ads have also focused on El-Sayed’s association with online streamer Hasan Piker, who appeared with him at two college campus rallies in April. Piker has millions of Twitch followers and has been criticized by opponents as anti-Semitic and anti-American, including over statements such as, “America deserved 9/11, dude.”
Hanson called the Piker connection “the biggest unforced error” of El-Sayed’s campaign.
Asked by The Center Square whether inviting Piker was a mistake, El-Sayed did not answer directly. “This race is not about a streamer in California,” he said. “This race is about gas prices and grocery prices in Michigan.”
In a FOX 2 appearance in Detroit, El-Sayed said he speaks with Piker because of the size of Piker’s audience. “It’s because of the 3 million people who pay attention to what he has to say,” El-Sayed said. “And I think it’s important to be able to offer those folks a pathway back into our politics.”
Israel, Local Costs, and a Divided Electorate
El-Sayed also apologized in August for his response to a March synagogue attack in the Detroit area, after critics said his comment, “Hurt people hurt people,” appeared to justify the violence. The Center Square reported that several relatives of the attacker had reportedly been killed by an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee spent about $30 million supporting Stevens in the Democratic primary, according to The Center Square, roughly one-third of total spending in the expensive race.
But some Michigan voters interviewed by The Center Square said they were more focused on domestic issues. Chip Clarke, who works with at-risk youth in the Detroit area, said voters had “heard enough about Israel,” while naming education, starter homes, family stability, and dignity as priorities.
Meredith Pavlov, a stay-at-home mother in the Detroit area, told The Center Square that voters she knows are tired of attack ads and want clarity on issues including prices, the war in Iran, and national unity.
Rogers Faces His Own Record
Rogers did not attend a FOX 2 event that had been scheduled before mail-in voting began, saying the moderator was not impartial. Both candidates have agreed to debates next month, according to The Center Square.
El-Sayed called Rogers “a coward” after the missed event and said he wanted to hold him accountable for his record.
Instead of debating Rogers, El-Sayed took questions from a FOX 2 host and audience. His most substantial policy proposal, according to The Center Square, is government-provided health coverage for all, funded by higher taxes on the ultra wealthy.
Rogers’ campaign did not respond to several requests for comment from The Center Square. In recent television ads, Rogers criticized prescription drug prices, saying pharmaceutical companies are “ripping American families off.” The Center Square noted that, as a congressman, Rogers opposed allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices with manufacturers and argued that free-market competition would keep prices low.
Trump, Trade, and the Stakes in Michigan
Rogers has also shifted from criticizing Trump after Jan. 6 to embracing him more fully as a Senate candidate, Hanson said. Rogers previously said Trump bore responsibility for the Capitol attack, according to CNN, but Hanson told The Center Square that Rogers later became “fully on board with Trump.”
Hanson said Rogers is “not beloved by the MAGA wing” but is “tolerable” to Trump’s most fervent supporters.
Economic pressure could shape the race as much as culture-war attacks. Hanson said high living costs, especially gas and groceries, would normally give Democrats an advantage because Republicans currently hold power. But he said the race could tighten if Rogers’ argument that El-Sayed is too extreme takes hold.
Michigan’s economy is also sensitive to trade disputes with Canada, Hanson said, because of cross-border commerce between Detroit and Windsor and the state’s auto industry ties.
Democrats need to flip only three seats to win the U.S. House, according to The Center Square, but need four Senate seats to control that chamber. That makes holding Michigan central to the party’s Senate strategy.
As Hanson put it, the race is “super consequential” for Democrats’ hopes of retaking the Senate.
